Winning Non-Showdown Hands

Well I wanted to post my first 10k hands of play at NL25... I think rushing to get to that level resulted in some silly pushes with top pair top kicker against what really looked like sets. I know better than to get caught like that but I do it sometimes along with overbetting with overpairs only to get called by better hands.

So here is the graph:




One of the things that HEM has shown me is how few players actually win at non showdown hands. This was shocking to me as it is the stable part of my stream of winnings and if went out the window I would be screwed. My W$SD % is well below 50% for two reasons.... 1. if I have a winning hand I am probably betting too much to get the value bet called on the river by losing hands and 2. because I play from position I get to check down missed draws on hands instead of 3 barreling against loose players.

How am I winning against players without showdown then? I think it comes down to playing from position and betting draws and not over c-betting the flop. I am playing full table running around a 23/17/2 style with a steal % of 36.7% in the above hands and can still get super tight players to want to play back at me. I play my best when I ignore who I am up against outside of betting against their stats. Isolate the guys at the table playing 40%+ vpip and c-bet them and also follow through on the turn when they call. That is how you get that non showdown results heading up instead of down like this guy who is winning at a slightly higher rate over 3.4k hands. He c-bets 75% of the time so I enjoy calling his raises with position and reraising him!





And here is a guy winning at 41 bb / 100 (I am using HEM now so no need to mention ptbb / 100 anymore) and he still can't win at non showdown hands.




I think winning at non showdown has to be core for every player who wants to maximize winning at cash games. If you are losing currently in that stat I would suggest raising the amount you value bet on the river by at least 20%. So if you bet 1/3 of the pot now bet 1/2 or if you want to really aggro a couple guys bet 3/4! I like to make my showdowns with winning hands and bluffs look the same. That way I can also steal a good sized pot when I miss a draw because my 3rd barrel actually has backup to make it seem like a standard line I would take.

Just look at my stats for January... ack... now I gotta find someone to help me get to showdown with a winning hand!



I logged out tonight when top two pair ran into a flopped set, AKs < JJ, and JJ < KK, AJs < set cost me almost 4 buyins... but that is poker and maybe tomorrow is my day to win for a change. Sometimes you have to remember that not everyone bets draws super hard!