Friday, January 23, 2009

Live poker is rigged

Found a good weekly live game where I have one guy who is going to pay me on a weekly basis I think. Got all in vs. him with Q10 vs. his Q9 on a Q high flop. This guy was willing to stack off with bottom pair against anyone at the table which is why I used this hand to double me up.... instead turn and river both fall with spades and he 4 flushes me.... well that is poker and I will have another shot at him for sure.

Last night I played some drunk poker and managed to win almost two buyins in a couple hours but spent about half of the winnings on the drink!

Oh well at least that should loosen up my image with those guys and next week when I play I will be able to focus a bit more.

My online time really has to increase a ton because I now can only qualify for the bronze level for the iron man and only with me playing almost daily till month end.

Thursday, January 08, 2009

Mookie Night

Played in the Mookie tonight and also got my 100 FT points for the day but wasn't really up to playing much poker today. Lost a little today but I keep running overpairs into sets which really hurts the results.

So just over 9k hands played this month and I am winning at a 7.5 bb / 100 rate which is a bit low for me and HEM agrees with my EV stat about $50 higher than the actual results. I think I have become a bit too passive and I am going to pick up my aggro a bit and hopefully that improves results.

Tuesday, January 06, 2009


Tried to get 200 FT points on a weeknight and that doesn't seem possible so I guess I will just have to aim for the gold level on FT. I was reading O-Poker's blog tonight and he made some good comments on questions to remember while multi-tabling. The more hands I play this month the more often I find myself in those tricky spots. Sometimes the brain is on and I think my play through and other times my finger starts doing the work for me!

Tomorrow I will hopefully find sometime to put together a hand replay of a few hands from a NL25 war I had with one super LAGtard who finally gets his.

Almost at 15k hands since the comeback but now work really picks up again so we will see how that eats into my playing time.

Tonight I did stop to watch the World Jr. game where Canada crushed the Swedes. Yay!

Monday, January 05, 2009

Folding to a cbet raise

I was just going through the articles provided with Holdem Manager and the fold to cbet raises was quite interesting. From the article

"When we get raised in this scenario we should play overpairs more conservatively than we would in 3bet pots because you need to be asking yourself what you beat when a solid villain raises you. Consider his range, your image, board texture and don’t be afraid to fold overpairs if you think you’re beaten. If a TAG has called in the blinds we can rule out other overpairs a lot so if he’s raising you on a 359 rainbow board he’s range is heavily weighted towards sets and unless we have reads or notes to suggest otherwise our overpair is probably not good and we should be folding a lot."

So far my stats are still running too hot to compare to anyone playing at higher levels as the win rate continues to be in the 20 bb / 100 range overall but has been much lower over the last 5k hands. Once I get to 20k hands I will post results again and run through the stats analysis as suggested by the HEM articles.

Sunday, January 04, 2009

Donk table had me stay up late!

I had a table that ran for almost 4 hours with three players with vpip of 50+... so no sleep until they are broke.... of course those are the types of players that I lose to the most often. My problem is that I see that they suck and I try to hard to go stack them instead of waiting for my chances. Oh well it made for an interesting evening but at least I got back most of my lost cash on this hand.

Robert was running with a 65/3/2 for 260 hands and he ended up positive so whatever works I guess. Lets just say he made my buddy list and I will look him up from now on.

I did take a quick shot at NL50 today as I was feeling a little burned out 6 tabling NL25 and managed to make a bit of cash before heading back to my normal level. I think I will play NL25 until I get to 20-25k hands at that level before moving up. It is also easier to play a level when you aren't worried about your overall stack... unlike the new Waffles technique of playing whatever level he feels like!

Time for bed.

Saturday, January 03, 2009

Winning Non-Showdown Hands

Well I wanted to post my first 10k hands of play at NL25... I think rushing to get to that level resulted in some silly pushes with top pair top kicker against what really looked like sets. I know better than to get caught like that but I do it sometimes along with overbetting with overpairs only to get called by better hands.

So here is the graph:

10m hands

One of the things that HEM has shown me is how few players actually win at non showdown hands. This was shocking to me as it is the stable part of my stream of winnings and if went out the window I would be screwed. My W$SD % is well below 50% for two reasons.... 1. if I have a winning hand I am probably betting too much to get the value bet called on the river by losing hands and 2. because I play from position I get to check down missed draws on hands instead of 3 barreling against loose players.

How am I winning against players without showdown then? I think it comes down to playing from position and betting draws and not over c-betting the flop. I am playing full table running around a 23/17/2 style with a steal % of 36.7% in the above hands and can still get super tight players to want to play back at me. I play my best when I ignore who I am up against outside of betting against their stats. Isolate the guys at the table playing 40%+ vpip and c-bet them and also follow through on the turn when they call. That is how you get that non showdown results heading up instead of down like this guy who is winning at a slightly higher rate over 3.4k hands. He c-bets 75% of the time so I enjoy calling his raises with position and reraising him!

typical non showdown hands

And here is a guy winning at 41 bb / 100 (I am using HEM now so no need to mention ptbb / 100 anymore) and he still can't win at non showdown hands.

typical non showdown hands 2

I think winning at non showdown has to be core for every player who wants to maximize winning at cash games. If you are losing currently in that stat I would suggest raising the amount you value bet on the river by at least 20%. So if you bet 1/3 of the pot now bet 1/2 or if you want to really aggro a couple guys bet 3/4! I like to make my showdowns with winning hands and bluffs look the same. That way I can also steal a good sized pot when I miss a draw because my 3rd barrel actually has backup to make it seem like a standard line I would take.

Just look at my stats for January... ack... now I gotta find someone to help me get to showdown with a winning hand!

January 2009

I logged out tonight when top two pair ran into a flopped set, AKs < JJ, and JJ < KK, AJs < set cost me almost 4 buyins... but that is poker and maybe tomorrow is my day to win for a change. Sometimes you have to remember that not everyone bets draws super hard!