Thursday, March 12, 2009

Eh-Vegas Time

Looking forward to getting out for some Eh-Vegas action tomorrow night and Saturday... it should be just what I need before heading to Las Vegas on Sunday... Sunday is also my bday so lots of time to celebrate over the next few days.

Been going through a ton of changes on the home front which have kept me from playing but I hope that I can get back on track in two weeks.

Friday, January 23, 2009

Live poker is rigged

Found a good weekly live game where I have one guy who is going to pay me on a weekly basis I think. Got all in vs. him with Q10 vs. his Q9 on a Q high flop. This guy was willing to stack off with bottom pair against anyone at the table which is why I used this hand to double me up.... instead turn and river both fall with spades and he 4 flushes me.... well that is poker and I will have another shot at him for sure.

Last night I played some drunk poker and managed to win almost two buyins in a couple hours but spent about half of the winnings on the drink!

Oh well at least that should loosen up my image with those guys and next week when I play I will be able to focus a bit more.

My online time really has to increase a ton because I now can only qualify for the bronze level for the iron man and only with me playing almost daily till month end.

Thursday, January 08, 2009

Mookie Night

Played in the Mookie tonight and also got my 100 FT points for the day but wasn't really up to playing much poker today. Lost a little today but I keep running overpairs into sets which really hurts the results.

So just over 9k hands played this month and I am winning at a 7.5 bb / 100 rate which is a bit low for me and HEM agrees with my EV stat about $50 higher than the actual results. I think I have become a bit too passive and I am going to pick up my aggro a bit and hopefully that improves results.

Tuesday, January 06, 2009

Grinding

Tried to get 200 FT points on a weeknight and that doesn't seem possible so I guess I will just have to aim for the gold level on FT. I was reading O-Poker's blog tonight and he made some good comments on questions to remember while multi-tabling. The more hands I play this month the more often I find myself in those tricky spots. Sometimes the brain is on and I think my play through and other times my finger starts doing the work for me!

Tomorrow I will hopefully find sometime to put together a hand replay of a few hands from a NL25 war I had with one super LAGtard who finally gets his.

Almost at 15k hands since the comeback but now work really picks up again so we will see how that eats into my playing time.

Tonight I did stop to watch the World Jr. game where Canada crushed the Swedes. Yay!

Monday, January 05, 2009

Folding to a cbet raise

I was just going through the articles provided with Holdem Manager and the fold to cbet raises was quite interesting. From the article

"When we get raised in this scenario we should play overpairs more conservatively than we would in 3bet pots because you need to be asking yourself what you beat when a solid villain raises you. Consider his range, your image, board texture and don’t be afraid to fold overpairs if you think you’re beaten. If a TAG has called in the blinds we can rule out other overpairs a lot so if he’s raising you on a 359 rainbow board he’s range is heavily weighted towards sets and unless we have reads or notes to suggest otherwise our overpair is probably not good and we should be folding a lot."



So far my stats are still running too hot to compare to anyone playing at higher levels as the win rate continues to be in the 20 bb / 100 range overall but has been much lower over the last 5k hands. Once I get to 20k hands I will post results again and run through the stats analysis as suggested by the HEM articles.

Sunday, January 04, 2009

Donk table had me stay up late!

I had a table that ran for almost 4 hours with three players with vpip of 50+... so no sleep until they are broke.... of course those are the types of players that I lose to the most often. My problem is that I see that they suck and I try to hard to go stack them instead of waiting for my chances. Oh well it made for an interesting evening but at least I got back most of my lost cash on this hand.



Robert was running with a 65/3/2 for 260 hands and he ended up positive so whatever works I guess. Lets just say he made my buddy list and I will look him up from now on.

I did take a quick shot at NL50 today as I was feeling a little burned out 6 tabling NL25 and managed to make a bit of cash before heading back to my normal level. I think I will play NL25 until I get to 20-25k hands at that level before moving up. It is also easier to play a level when you aren't worried about your overall stack... unlike the new Waffles technique of playing whatever level he feels like!

Time for bed.

Saturday, January 03, 2009

Winning Non-Showdown Hands

Well I wanted to post my first 10k hands of play at NL25... I think rushing to get to that level resulted in some silly pushes with top pair top kicker against what really looked like sets. I know better than to get caught like that but I do it sometimes along with overbetting with overpairs only to get called by better hands.

So here is the graph:

10m hands


One of the things that HEM has shown me is how few players actually win at non showdown hands. This was shocking to me as it is the stable part of my stream of winnings and if went out the window I would be screwed. My W$SD % is well below 50% for two reasons.... 1. if I have a winning hand I am probably betting too much to get the value bet called on the river by losing hands and 2. because I play from position I get to check down missed draws on hands instead of 3 barreling against loose players.

How am I winning against players without showdown then? I think it comes down to playing from position and betting draws and not over c-betting the flop. I am playing full table running around a 23/17/2 style with a steal % of 36.7% in the above hands and can still get super tight players to want to play back at me. I play my best when I ignore who I am up against outside of betting against their stats. Isolate the guys at the table playing 40%+ vpip and c-bet them and also follow through on the turn when they call. That is how you get that non showdown results heading up instead of down like this guy who is winning at a slightly higher rate over 3.4k hands. He c-bets 75% of the time so I enjoy calling his raises with position and reraising him!


typical non showdown hands


And here is a guy winning at 41 bb / 100 (I am using HEM now so no need to mention ptbb / 100 anymore) and he still can't win at non showdown hands.

typical non showdown hands 2


I think winning at non showdown has to be core for every player who wants to maximize winning at cash games. If you are losing currently in that stat I would suggest raising the amount you value bet on the river by at least 20%. So if you bet 1/3 of the pot now bet 1/2 or if you want to really aggro a couple guys bet 3/4! I like to make my showdowns with winning hands and bluffs look the same. That way I can also steal a good sized pot when I miss a draw because my 3rd barrel actually has backup to make it seem like a standard line I would take.

Just look at my stats for January... ack... now I gotta find someone to help me get to showdown with a winning hand!

January 2009

I logged out tonight when top two pair ran into a flopped set, AKs < JJ, and JJ < KK, AJs < set cost me almost 4 buyins... but that is poker and maybe tomorrow is my day to win for a change. Sometimes you have to remember that not everyone bets draws super hard!

Wednesday, December 31, 2008

Happy New Year!

Well I am done playing for the month of December and I hope you all find players like this guy to play against.





So played almost 6,800 hands in December which has to be a record for me. I even tried to 6 table it for a bit this evening to see how that would impact my win rate. I found the players this evening playing much more aggro and seeing much bigger pot sizes which didn't help. Nothing worse than trying to make things more difficult and people are playing back at you more often.

The results for playing that many hands of NL25 worked out to be up 21 buy ins which is way above average (I doubt I could possibly maintain 15.8 ptbb / 100) for a bigger sample size.

I also wanted to add a resolution to actually read something that is educational again instead of those silly best sellers.

Hand of the night

So got in a few more hands this evening but feeling a bit tired so I will try to catch up on some needed sleep.

Here is the hand history for my hand of the evening.

Tuesday, December 30, 2008

A few resolutions for 2009

Well just got through the first 5k hands and so far still winning at 15 ptbb / 100 which is much better than I have run anytime in the past. The main goal is go get the bankroll back over the 1k mark so I can move up to NL50 and start to build the roll at a more respectable rate.

So some resolutions for 2009:

1. Play poker in every month of the year. Attempt to get at least 5 hours in a week playing. Also spend 3 hours a week reading or studying the game. I may spend all of my FT points on some video training site like Cardrunners but they had another choice that was less expensive that I may try out.

2. Build bankroll so I can afford to play NL100 again without worrying about a 10 buyin downswing... so I need probably 3-4k to do that comfortably.

3. Datamine a lot more prior to playing and focus on always playing my optimal game. When the fish leave the table I will leave the table (or am I the fish?!). Realize that I don't have to crush everyone at every table or win every hand. It is always up to me to determine the size of the pot and if not then get out of that situation and find a better one to attack with.

I would like to win more than 10k this year from this game and I think that is more than possible.

Some non poker resolutions:

4. Do not let the market mess with your mind... go out and find a way to make money regardless of the current situation. Work on technical analysis to help with entry and exit points.

5. Learn how to speak Spanish as that opens up a lot of places to travel. You have the Rosetta Stone levels 1-3 so start working your way through that. Also play a CD in the car to help you brush up on some other parts of the language using another program.

6. Utilize what poker teaches us in not letting others know what we think. No one cares to hear your politics or opinions even if they are asking for your opinion. Keep your thoughts to yourself and blog about it instead of talking about it.

7. Find something to do that is athletic. Starting to get a little tubby which isn't good so time to take off 15-20 pounds of fat and maybe replace a bit of that with some muscle. The extra poker will give me the mental stress that is better utilized by exercising instead of tilting away 2 more buyins.

Lots of stuff to work on this year but I will be better for it in the end.

Sunday, December 28, 2008

Been forever

Well it has been a super tough year on me but now I am trying to work out what the hell I am going to do for 2009.

For starters I am going to put poker back into my life and try to play all 12 months this year! I had a couple really good poker results in the live area with a 3k win in a free event plus a few good nights at the Nutz poker club. Unfortunately my club got shut down and it stopped me from playing as much live poker as I would have liked this year.

My online funds were so low that it was always frustrating to start over at NL25 to rebuild. Well those thoughts are behind me and I have been working well over the past week and running a little hot over the first 3k hands (if you think that 23 ptbb / 100 is hot!). Had to go back to full ring because my usual 30/20/5 was getting me in trouble at 6 max so now I am 4 tabling and running a tight 23/17/3.

I find that I play a good optimal game when I stick to my goal of having me decide when I want the pot to get large instead of following someone else's lead. Full ring is a bit more on the nitty side but my first goal is to build the stack and so far that is happening.

Hoy mentioned UB and that reminded me that I do have some cash stranded over there and I will work to build that up to something respectable as well. I doubt anyone is going to abuse the NL25 crowd illegally when they are more than willing to give you cash.

Anyway over the next couple days I will post some of my goals for next year which also includes actually spending some time writing on this blog!

Wednesday, April 16, 2008

Vegas tomorrow

Starting to get really excited today about the Pens game tonight and the trip tomorrow. Been a long time since I had some vacation time and I really need it. Looking forward to putting my NL skillz to work at some 1/2 tables full of tourists like myself!

My buddy has been trying to see some of the shit that I wouldn't care to get to like the Stratosphere which looks like a mini CN Tower so I am not interested. Just for perspective the white tower behind and to the right of the tower is 70+ stories high and that is approx. half way up the silly tower.

When it comes to seeing the sights I really want to focus on the poker rooms that I hear so much about. My buddy likes poker but he is more of a see the tourist stuff and take pictures type of guy.... me not so much. I want good food and cute girls everywhere I look. Top that off with some alcohol and I can have a good time! From Carmen's message from a couple days ago the VIP pools sound right up my alley. And I can impress the girls with my super white skin and randomly placed patches of back hair! Going to have to beat them back....

Getting to sleep tonight could be difficult.

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Monday, April 14, 2008

Hockey Playoffs

I never mentioned anything yet on the hockey playoffs... you figure with a name like Guin that I would mention my thoughts more often.

Well to tell you the truth I am but not on this blog.... I am using a Sportingnews blog to discuss my penGUINs on a daily basis.

The good news is that the team is playing with confidence and looking forward to watching them bash the remaining Senators tonight. Malkin is such a superstar and I hope that at the Igloo that they start chanting MVP for him when/if we play Washington in round 2. The hope right now is that the Rangers and Philly wins and we get the Rangers in the 2nd round. I think that with the Pens style of play that they are better suited to play against the Rangers.

First things first... Pens have to win 2 more games before we have to worry about the next competitor.

Slow Grind

Being back at lower limits is such a slow grind... I think I may earn more in rakeback than I am earning at the tables right now. No need to make any moves... just hit a hand and shove!

Using position to keep the win rate up to 5 ptbb / 100 but damn hard to play aggro when I am nursing the bankroll.

I may have to buy some bucks off of Carmen while in Vegas to get the online roll to a more reasonable level.

So looking forward to flight on Thursday morning. Going to sleep on the flight but not much after I get there.

Sunday, April 13, 2008

Going to Vegas

Can you imagine that my wife was so cool as to allow me to go to Vegas to do a pre-Stag preparation long weekend?!!!

Since I have never been a person to organize a stag (which means I haven't been the best man to anyone else!) and I haven't been to Vegas she was a bit easier to convince. But either way it will be an awesome event for this pre-Stag and I may try to put the stag itself over the blogger weekend and some of us might join in on the blogger poker tourney. Not sure if you guys could hang with a couple more drunk Canadians looking to lose some cash to big hammer drops but you never know.

So any suggestions will be very helpful... this trip has less of a budget constraint than the next one so let me know the cool pools and clubs to hang around in. Almost forgot but we are also interested in the best reasonably priced golf courses to play in the area.

Wednesday, April 02, 2008

Darn Work!

Right after getting all setup to play poker again I found myself in a typical problem... work is driving me nuts so when I sit down to play I can't focus. I think I really need a few months off to really recharge my batteries but that isn't possible. The new venture has been going for five months now and things are looking good.

Looking to rebuild the online poker roll as I took a bunch of it offline recently to play some live poker with horrible results.

Thinking of the bloggers as I may have a chance to get out to Vegas sometime in the near future for the first time which would be really cool. If I firm something up I will be bugging a couple people for some input on what to do and see.

Hope everyone is hitting all their draws!

Friday, December 14, 2007

Trying to get rolling again

I just ordered IdleMiner and it is a godsend for helping to get good info on the players you are against. It also really helps me to focus on playing against bad players and leave the table when those guys run out of cash.

With more data I find I end up looking at Poker Tracker data much more. Do a screen for vpip over 50% and won show down % less than 35%. These guys make my buddy list for sure with a win rate of -86.8 ptbb / 100 hands. Is it possible to lose over 6 buyins in 150 hands? The answer is sure if you have stats like this: 66.2/21.8/5.8 and have an 18% win at SD %! You have to love how they build their image but still pot it with 2nd pair on all streets against an obvious overpair. Took an hour to repay me for the cost of the program!

Here was my hand of the night against this genius:

Full Tilt No-Limit Hold'em, $0.50 BB (6 handed) Full Tilt Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: HTML)


saw flopsaw showdown

Button ($163.65)
SB ($49.30)
BB ($62.10)
UTG Hero ($54.35)
MP (Villian)/ ($50)
CO ($71.75)



Preflop: Hero is UTG with Kd, Qc.

UTGA raises to $1.75, MP (Villian)/ calls $1.75, 4 folds.

Flop: ($4.25) Jd, Td, Ks (2 players)

UTG bets $2, Villian raises to $4, UTG raises to $14, Villian calls $8.
I have to bet here and try to get his money in the middle.

Turn: ($30.25) As (2 players)

Hero checks, Villian bets $36.25 (All-In), Hero calls $36.25.
Now it is time to give him some rope so he can hang himself.


River: ($0) 4h (2 players, 1 all-in)

Final Pot: $102.75

Results in white below:

Hero has Kd Qc (straight, ace high).

Villian has Ac 5c (one pair, aces).

Outcome: Hero wins $102.75.

Wednesday, December 05, 2007

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Wednesday, November 28, 2007

Bad Call

Just wanted to put this out there to see if I should have folded this on the turn when I was drawing to a full house.

Full Tilt Poker Game #4330085106: The Mookie:Bow to Budo (32645907), Table 5 - 15/30 - No Limit Hold'em - 22:10:15 ET - 2007/11/28
Seat 1: wwonka69 (2,125)
Seat 2: VinNay (2,925), is sitting out
Seat 3: jjok (3,410)
Seat 4: sellthekids (3,045)
Seat 5: Rake Feeder (3,030)
Seat 6: Mungo36 (3,000)
Seat 7: JL514 (3,330)
Seat 8: whiskigrl (3,135)
Seat 9: BuddyDank (3,000)
VinNay posts the small blind of 15
jjok posts the big blind of 30
The button is in seat #1
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to Mungo36 [Qc Qh]
sellthekids folds
Rake Feeder folds
Mungo36 has 15 seconds left to act
Mungo36 raises to 90
JL514 folds
whiskigrl folds
BuddyDank calls 90
wwonka69 folds
VinNay folds
jjok folds
*** FLOP *** [Ts 9c 8s]
Mungo36 bets 166
BuddyDank calls 166
*** TURN *** [Ts 9c 8s] [Qs]
Mungo36 has 15 seconds left to act
Mungo36 bets 336
BuddyDank has 15 seconds left to act
BuddyDank raises to 1,110
Mungo36 calls 774
*** RIVER *** [Ts 9c 8s Qs] [Td]
Mungo36 has 15 seconds left to act
Mungo36 bets 666
BuddyDank has 15 seconds left to act
BuddyDank calls 666
*** SHOW DOWN ***
Mungo36 shows [Qc Qh] a full house, Queens full of Tens
BuddyDank mucks
Mungo36 wins the pot (4,109) with a full house, Queens full of Tens
The blinds are now 20/40
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot 4,109 Rake 0
Board: [Ts 9c 8s Qs Td]
Seat 1: wwonka69 (button) didn't bet (folded)
Seat 2: VinNay (small blind) folded before the Flop
Seat 3: jjok (big blind) folded before the Flop
Seat 4: sellthekids didn't bet (folded)
Seat 5: Rake Feeder didn't bet (folded)
Seat 6: Mungo36 showed [Qc Qh] and won (4,109) with a full house, Queens full of Tens
Seat 7: JL514 didn't bet (folded)
Seat 8: whiskigrl didn't bet (folded)
Seat 9: BuddyDank mucked [Js Kc] - a straight, King high